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	<title>Comments for Evolving Economics</title>
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	<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org</link>
	<description>A blog by Jason Collins on economics, evolution and those areas in between</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 02:54:09 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on The use of heritability in policy development by Mark B</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/12/the-use-of-heritability-in-policy-development/#comment-1396</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 May 2013 02:54:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=2091#comment-1396</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You say: &quot;They want fraternal twins that are treated like identical twins, meaning that they have equally similar environments&quot; but N=16 on that arm of the sample, so I was only talking about the other direction. I&#039;ll skip the 10 minute brainstorm on the problems with a hypothetical sample of fraternal twins who think they are identical. As far as I can tell, the questions I raised are unanswerable. 

One reason these studies might all turn up the same result is that they all are looking at the same correlation. I&#039;m not sure they do give the same result, either.

You cite an article from 2000, which contains the memorable passage regarding the Human Genome Project: &quot;What should we expect from this endeavor? Behavior geneticists anticipate vindication: At long last, statistical variance components will be rooted in the actual causal consequences of actual genes. Critics of behavior genetics expect the opposite, pointing to the repeated failures to replicate associations between genes and behavior as evidence of the shaky theoretical underpinnings of which they have so long complained.&quot; As far as I know, none of that came true. In place of &quot;actual genes&quot; was substituted this GREML stuff, which is the sort of high-R-squared-means-good-model methods economics threw out in the 1970s. At least the referees at PNAS made them write it up as a correlation that &quot;possibly corroborates&quot; these other theories. You might consider citing it accordingly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You say: &#8220;They want fraternal twins that are treated like identical twins, meaning that they have equally similar environments&#8221; but N=16 on that arm of the sample, so I was only talking about the other direction. I&#8217;ll skip the 10 minute brainstorm on the problems with a hypothetical sample of fraternal twins who think they are identical. As far as I can tell, the questions I raised are unanswerable. </p>
<p>One reason these studies might all turn up the same result is that they all are looking at the same correlation. I&#8217;m not sure they do give the same result, either.</p>
<p>You cite an article from 2000, which contains the memorable passage regarding the Human Genome Project: &#8220;What should we expect from this endeavor? Behavior geneticists anticipate vindication: At long last, statistical variance components will be rooted in the actual causal consequences of actual genes. Critics of behavior genetics expect the opposite, pointing to the repeated failures to replicate associations between genes and behavior as evidence of the shaky theoretical underpinnings of which they have so long complained.&#8221; As far as I know, none of that came true. In place of &#8220;actual genes&#8221; was substituted this GREML stuff, which is the sort of high-R-squared-means-good-model methods economics threw out in the 1970s. At least the referees at PNAS made them write it up as a correlation that &#8220;possibly corroborates&#8221; these other theories. You might consider citing it accordingly.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The use of heritability in policy development by Jason Collins</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/12/the-use-of-heritability-in-policy-development/#comment-1393</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Collins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 21:58:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=2091#comment-1393</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;Wouldn’t misidentified identical twins still look very much alike? If one was tall, the other would be tall, and plenty of research has shown that height correlates with how people treat you. They would have the same eye and hair color, similar skin tones, similar features- unfortunately, these all predict how people treat you, too. ...

What exactly does it mean to find “misclassified” identical twins- wouldn’t they likely have some idea they were identical? Might these shared characteristics lead them to identify with one another more than fraternal twins?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The similarity between misidentified identical twins is one of the features the researchers are after. They want fraternal twins that are treated like identical twins, meaning that they have equally similar environments. If the misidentified identical twins identify with each other as identical twins do, that&#039;s also good for the test.

&lt;blockquote&gt;Don’t identical twins have different in utero experiences than fraternal twins, whether it is that they develop in the same amniotic sac, or just the fact that they developed from the same egg?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Mono-amniotic twins are a small percentage of identical twins, so that is a minor confound at best. I&#039;m not aware of any research that points to the in-utero environment being more similar for identical twins than for fraternal twins, and that in turn affecting the traits that we&#039;re examining to any noticeable degree. 

&lt;blockquote&gt;Who are the parents who misclassify their twin children- isn’t that an implicit omitted variable that you can never get rid of here? If there are gene-environment interaction terms missing from the equation (and include a bunch of interactions with the unobservables I’ve listed here, and those I haven’t) wouldn’t you run into all the same problems with the “heritability” estimates?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Heritability of behavioural traits has been examined from many directions - twin studies, adoption studies, family studies, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.jasoncollins.org/2012/05/the-genetic-architecture-of-economic-and-political-preferences/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;GREML&lt;/a&gt;, etc and they all turn up the same result. There&#039;s a reason why the &lt;a href=&quot;http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/three_laws.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;first law of behavioural genetics&lt;/a&gt; is that all human behavioural traits are heritable.

Lastly, there are also confounds that may lead us to be &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/08/underestimating-heritability/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;underestimating heritability&lt;/a&gt;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Wouldn’t misidentified identical twins still look very much alike? If one was tall, the other would be tall, and plenty of research has shown that height correlates with how people treat you. They would have the same eye and hair color, similar skin tones, similar features- unfortunately, these all predict how people treat you, too. &#8230;</p>
<p>What exactly does it mean to find “misclassified” identical twins- wouldn’t they likely have some idea they were identical? Might these shared characteristics lead them to identify with one another more than fraternal twins?</p></blockquote>
<p>The similarity between misidentified identical twins is one of the features the researchers are after. They want fraternal twins that are treated like identical twins, meaning that they have equally similar environments. If the misidentified identical twins identify with each other as identical twins do, that&#8217;s also good for the test.</p>
<blockquote><p>Don’t identical twins have different in utero experiences than fraternal twins, whether it is that they develop in the same amniotic sac, or just the fact that they developed from the same egg?</p></blockquote>
<p>Mono-amniotic twins are a small percentage of identical twins, so that is a minor confound at best. I&#8217;m not aware of any research that points to the in-utero environment being more similar for identical twins than for fraternal twins, and that in turn affecting the traits that we&#8217;re examining to any noticeable degree. </p>
<blockquote><p>Who are the parents who misclassify their twin children- isn’t that an implicit omitted variable that you can never get rid of here? If there are gene-environment interaction terms missing from the equation (and include a bunch of interactions with the unobservables I’ve listed here, and those I haven’t) wouldn’t you run into all the same problems with the “heritability” estimates?</p></blockquote>
<p>Heritability of behavioural traits has been examined from many directions &#8211; twin studies, adoption studies, family studies, <a href="http://www.jasoncollins.org/2012/05/the-genetic-architecture-of-economic-and-political-preferences/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">GREML</a>, etc and they all turn up the same result. There&#8217;s a reason why the <a href="http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/three_laws.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">first law of behavioural genetics</a> is that all human behavioural traits are heritable.</p>
<p>Lastly, there are also confounds that may lead us to be <a href="http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/08/underestimating-heritability/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">underestimating heritability</a>.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The use of heritability in policy development by Mark B</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/12/the-use-of-heritability-in-policy-development/#comment-1392</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 16:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=2091#comment-1392</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wouldn&#039;t misidentified identical twins still look very much alike? If one was tall, the other would be tall, and plenty of research has shown that height correlates with how people treat you. They would have the same eye and hair color, similar skin tones, similar features- unfortunately, these all predict how people treat you, too. Don&#039;t identical twins have different in utero experiences than fraternal twins, whether it is that they develop in the same amniotic sac, or just the fact that they developed from the same egg? What exactly does it mean to find &quot;misclassified&quot; identical twins- wouldn&#039;t they likely have some idea they were identical? Might these shared characteristics lead them to identify with one another more than fraternal twins? Who are the parents who misclassify their twin children- isn&#039;t that an implicit omitted variable that you can never get rid of here? If there are gene-environment interaction terms missing from the equation (and include a bunch of interactions with the unobservables I&#039;ve listed here, and those I haven&#039;t) wouldn&#039;t you run into all the same problems with the &quot;heritability&quot; estimates? 

Perhaps I misunderstand the claims being made (I&#039;m certainly not a geneticist), but it sounds a lot like causality, when all I see is a correlation with many confounders.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wouldn&#8217;t misidentified identical twins still look very much alike? If one was tall, the other would be tall, and plenty of research has shown that height correlates with how people treat you. They would have the same eye and hair color, similar skin tones, similar features- unfortunately, these all predict how people treat you, too. Don&#8217;t identical twins have different in utero experiences than fraternal twins, whether it is that they develop in the same amniotic sac, or just the fact that they developed from the same egg? What exactly does it mean to find &#8220;misclassified&#8221; identical twins- wouldn&#8217;t they likely have some idea they were identical? Might these shared characteristics lead them to identify with one another more than fraternal twins? Who are the parents who misclassify their twin children- isn&#8217;t that an implicit omitted variable that you can never get rid of here? If there are gene-environment interaction terms missing from the equation (and include a bunch of interactions with the unobservables I&#8217;ve listed here, and those I haven&#8217;t) wouldn&#8217;t you run into all the same problems with the &#8220;heritability&#8221; estimates? </p>
<p>Perhaps I misunderstand the claims being made (I&#8217;m certainly not a geneticist), but it sounds a lot like causality, when all I see is a correlation with many confounders.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Sexual selection and entrepreneurship by Jason Collins</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2013/05/sexual-selection-and-entrepreneurship/#comment-1388</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Collins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 23:50:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=6225#comment-1388</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I agree, and Niman does generally refer to survival in addition to reproductive success (so the title of his paper and my post are a bit deceiving). However, I&#039;d say it&#039;s a fair assumption that sexual selection is a fairly important driver.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree, and Niman does generally refer to survival in addition to reproductive success (so the title of his paper and my post are a bit deceiving). However, I&#8217;d say it&#8217;s a fair assumption that sexual selection is a fairly important driver.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Sexual selection and entrepreneurship by Victor Venema</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2013/05/sexual-selection-and-entrepreneurship/#comment-1387</link>
		<dc:creator>Victor Venema</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 13:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=6225#comment-1387</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The post does not explain why we need to resort to sexual selection to explain why people seek innovations with a higher profit margin. Normal selection will do as long as innovating brings an additional profit on average.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The post does not explain why we need to resort to sexual selection to explain why people seek innovations with a higher profit margin. Normal selection will do as long as innovating brings an additional profit on average.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The evolution of conscientiousness by panjoomby</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/06/the-evolution-of-conscientiousness/#comment-1384</link>
		<dc:creator>panjoomby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 22:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=1316#comment-1384</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;As for the trait I often talk about, time preference or patience, I 
expect that this is a combination of intelligence and conscientiousness.&quot; 
You say more in fewer words than any blog i know. I wish all blogs were so concise (&amp; so accurate). Well-done!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;As for the trait I often talk about, time preference or patience, I<br />
expect that this is a combination of intelligence and conscientiousness.&#8221;<br />
You say more in fewer words than any blog i know. I wish all blogs were so concise (&amp; so accurate). Well-done!</p>
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		<title>Comment on IQ is an artificial construct by Roundup of the Heresy of Jason Richwine: Guilty of preferring truth to PC &#124; Occam&#039;s Razor</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2013/05/iq-is-an-artificial-construct/#comment-1381</link>
		<dc:creator>Roundup of the Heresy of Jason Richwine: Guilty of preferring truth to PC &#124; Occam&#039;s Razor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 12:46:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=6206#comment-1381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Jason Collins: &#8220;The IQ barrier&#8221; and &#8220;IQ is an artificial construct&#8220; [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Jason Collins: &#8220;The IQ barrier&#8221; and &#8220;IQ is an artificial construct&#8220; [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Heritability of religion and fertility by Grab-Bag &#124; Mitchell Powell&#039;s Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2011/05/heritability-of-religion-and-fertility/#comment-1379</link>
		<dc:creator>Grab-Bag &#124; Mitchell Powell&#039;s Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 11:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=940#comment-1379</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Jason Collins, developing an idea that I think we saw first with F. A. Hayek, says that for evolutionary reasons, fertility is going to start going back up: here. And on the heritability of religion and fertility: here. [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Jason Collins, developing an idea that I think we saw first with F. A. Hayek, says that for evolutionary reasons, fertility is going to start going back up: here. And on the heritability of religion and fertility: here. [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Fertility is going to go up by Grab-Bag &#124; Mitchell Powell&#039;s Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2013/01/fertility-is-going-to-go-up/#comment-1378</link>
		<dc:creator>Grab-Bag &#124; Mitchell Powell&#039;s Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2013 08:28:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=5161#comment-1378</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] with F. A. Hayek, says that for evolutionary reasons, fertility is going to start going back up: here. And on the heritability of religion and fertility: [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] with F. A. Hayek, says that for evolutionary reasons, fertility is going to start going back up: here. And on the heritability of religion and fertility: [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on The IQ barrier by Roundup of the Heresy of Jason Richwine: Guilty of preferring truth to PC &#124; Occam&#039;s Razor</title>
		<link>http://www.jasoncollins.org/2013/05/the-iq-barrier/#comment-1377</link>
		<dc:creator>Roundup of the Heresy of Jason Richwine: Guilty of preferring truth to PC &#124; Occam&#039;s Razor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 May 2013 23:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jasoncollins.org/?p=6173#comment-1377</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Jason Collins: &#8220;The IQ barrier&#8220; [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Jason Collins: &#8220;The IQ barrier&#8220; [...]</p>
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